Successful U.S. Launch and Earnings Surprise for Oral Wegovy

Novo Nordisk's first oral obesity treatment, Wegovy pill (oral semaglutide 25mg), achieved an earnings surprise in the first quarter of its U.S. launch in 2026. The drug generated 2.26 billion Danish kroner (DKK, approximately $354 million) in sales during the quarter, nearly doubling the market consensus of 1.16 billion kroner. This is attributed to a significant influx of obese patients who prefer the convenient once-daily oral option over injections. Within just a few months of its U.S. FDA approval on January 5, 2026, the drug surpassed 3 million prescriptions, marking the fastest commercial uptake in history.

Upward Revision of 2026 Annual Financial Guidance and Impact of One-Time Reserve Release

Driven by the unexpectedly strong performance in the U.S. market, Novo Nordisk has officially revised its full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit. The company initially projected a 5% to 13% decrease in annual sales and operating profit, but has now narrowed the range to a 4% to 12% decrease. While a year-over-year decline is inevitable due to pricing pressures and market competition, oral Wegovy is significantly mitigating this. Furthermore, a one-time release of $4.2 billion from reserves related to the U.S. 340B Drug Pricing Program has further strengthened the company's financial stability.

Market Expansion Through New Patient Acquisition and No Cannibalization of Injectable Products

The industry's concern about cannibalization of existing injectable Wegovy (a once-weekly injection) has largely not materialized. Remarkably, over 80% of new patients prescribed oral Wegovy are completely new to GLP-1 (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1) therapies. This indicates that the oral formulation is not simply taking market share from existing injectable users, but rather expanding the overall market by lowering the barrier to obesity treatment. The demonstrated efficacy and safety, comparable to injectable Wegovy 2.4mg in trials such as the OASIS 4 study, has instilled confidence in both healthcare professionals and patients.

Expansion of Global Approvals and Intensified Competition with Eli Lilly

Building on its success in the U.S., Novo Nordisk is accelerating its global expansion, securing approval from the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in June 2026. The company plans to sequentially launch oral Wegovy in major overseas markets, including Europe, starting in the second half of 2026. In response, Eli Lilly is ramping up production of its obesity injection, Zepbound, and accelerating the development of Orforglipron, a non-peptide GLP-1 oral agent in Phase 3 trials. In the near term, Novo Nordisk, as the first company to market an oral obesity treatment, is expected to maintain a strong lead in market share.